Why the super sector should be doubly worried about Iran
The superannuation sector hopes the Iran crisis is solved quickly so it can avoid the risk of a nasty bear market colliding with persistent operational issues.
On Shemara Wikramanayake’s office wall is a cartoon that was passed down to the Macquarie Group chief executive by her predecessor, Nicholas Moore. It depicts a group of wizards standing around a crystal ball, with the caption: “Nope, we’ve got nothing.”
As Wikramanayake told the Asia Pacific Financial and Innovation Symposium on Thursday, the cartoon neatly sums up how she feels about trying to predict where the war in Iran goes. Macquarie has modelled a scenario where it ends quickly, which she says has a relatively high probability weighting. But it’s also considering another, more ugly outcome, where oil hits $US200 a barrel.
