This Month
Markets are gripped by an alarming cognitive dissonance
Many traders are sitting desks away from commodity analysts discussing the disastrous consequences of Hormuz staying shut. What on earth is going on?
Recession risk ignored as traders bet on triple rate rise
Bond markets price in three more hikes by Christmas as global yields hit 15-year highs, but economists warn aggressive tightening risks breaking the economy.
The great oil delusion: Energy shocks are just a shadow rate rise
From a macro perspective, the oil shock is another form of monetary tightening. This is why the recent repricing in interest rates may ultimately prove misguided.
Relentless war, energy crisis does little to dent bond market outlook
Yields are at levels last seen in 2011 and well clear of suggesting a recession is on the horizon, despite looming headwinds from the Middle East conflict.
$A the ‘belle of the ball’ as RBA gets ahead of the pack
After Tuesday’s rate rise, there’s a 54 per cent chance of another increase in May that has caught the attention of investors overseas.
Lineball RBA call does little to dissuade market of sky-high rate bet
Investors and economists say a “rate hike hat trick” is in play after Tuesday’s decision, with traders pricing in 50 per cent chance of another increase in May.
$A surges with the RBA poised to raise rates and flag more to come
Traders have piled into the Australian dollar before the Reserve Bank’s key rate decision. It is expected to be the odd one out among eight major central banks meeting his week.
Aussie dollar jumps on oil shock as big four banks tip two rate rises
Banks and traders are expecting a rate increase from the RBA next week, which has lit a fire under the Australian dollar just as oil jumps back above $US100 a barrel.
Traders, major banks point to rate rise next week on Iran oil shock
Markets and economists increasingly expect an increase this month after hawkish comments from Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser in a podcast this week.
Hunkering down: cash funds swell on Middle East tensions
Investors are hoarding capital in cash funds, keeping their powder dry to buy the dip once the Middle East war de-escalates.
Bank of America tips RBA to raise interest rates next week
Economist Nick Stenner has warned an energy shock from the Middle East conflict will force the central bank to act as soon as next week.
Panic grips bond market as oil chaos forces RBA’s hand
The biggest surge in the oil price since 1988 has spooked financial markets with traders worried that inflation is running away from the central bank.
Bond traders already had their hands full, ‘then a war breaks out’
Investors closed their books on a month of mounting artificial intelligence risks. Then a conflict in the Middle East raised a whole new set of worries.
War and oil spark global bond firestorm on rates rethink
Yields are surging as the jump in energy prices caused by the strikes on Iran raises the prospect of higher borrowing costs worldwide.
La Trobe CEO talks up ASX float despite credit fund scrutiny
Chris Andrews said interest was “dual track” from public and private investors, but said the outcome will be determined by its major shareholder Brookfield.
March rate rise on the cards after Bullock’s reality check
The RBA governor made a rare departure from her usual script at The Australian Financial Review Business Summit that’s prompted a rethink on rates.
Time for Australia’s super funds to rethink how they invest
Investing in a data centre should not be debated solely as “real estate” or “infrastructure”, but rather how it can improve the portfolio.
February
Rate rise risk for March looms large after inflation surprise
Bond yields have climbed and the Aussie dollar is up as traders ramp up bets that the Reserve Bank will be forced to act sooner than many economists expected.
Australian dollar to spike as investors pile into ‘carry trade’
The ‘carry trade’ has returned to Australia helping the $A to defying expectations with super funds now making money on their currency hedging.
Which side of the AI trade are you on? Credit investors are undecided
In debt markets, our greatest fear is when the default risk of one borrower becomes highly correlated with another – this is the risk of the AI revolution.
AirTrunk fires starting pistol as AI bond bonanza reaches Down Under
Local investors are bracing for a wave of tech industry debt issuances in Australian dollars after a decade-long drought as hyperscalers scramble for financing.
Worried about rising rates? Top forecasters say RBA may well be done
After the year kicked off with a rise in Australia, experts have shared their views on where to next for one of the world’s most hawkish central banks.
US inflation eases, traders lift odds of third rate cut
The American consumer price index rose 0.2 per cent in January, the smallest gain since July and restrained by lower energy costs.
Surging demand has helped Australia’s bond market finally come of age
A jump in issuance is great news for Australian investors and the federal government. But it has not always been this way.
US rates seen on ‘a long pause’ after January jobs data
The probability of a quarter point rate cut in June fell after the US economy added far more new jobs than expected last month, easing pressure on policymakers.
