Today
‘It will affect everything’: This was the week the war hit home
The war is no longer distant. From farms to supermarkets, the shock is spreading through the economy, and Australia could be pushed towards recession if it drags on.
Yesterday
Oil crisis flows through to Australian dinner plate
Rising costs and budget-wary consumers are squeezing restaurant owners like Sam Young, as farmers warn high fuel prices mean worse to come.
Iran war price shock, private credit pain and WFH battle reignites
James and Anthony tackle global energy volatility, credit market cockroaches and take a question on oil companies and their super profits.
Middle East conflict could push inflation to mid-sixes by June
A swift resolution to the war won’t be enough to stop prices marching higher, economists warn.
This Month
Inflation and fertiliser price spike to hit Australia: OECD
The OECD called out Australia for a “resurgence in inflation” that pre-dates the Middle East conflict and warned of further interest rate rises.
Australia must choose the right metric to tax the digital economy
The three theories of value – activity, intellectual property, infrastructure – that the government could use to determine taxation must be closely examined.
An entire generation is losing faith in Australian democracy
The crippling economic inequality between the young and old, especially for housing, is starting to show in attitudes towards the system of government.
RBA’s narrow pathway on inflation will need to widen
If the central bank is serious about getting core inflation back to its 2.5 per cent target, it will need to abandon a dual goal to keep the unemployment rate low.
Gen X takes the reins: The middle child now rules Canberra
For the first time in 40 years, Baby Boomers are no longer the driving force in parliament as Jim Chalmers prepares a budget focused on intergenerational equity.
War will keep inflation ‘higher for longer’: Chalmers
New data from the period before the Iran conflict broke out shows headline inflation in Australia remained high and outside the Reserve Bank’s target range.
This oil shock is not as bad as the 1970s. Not yet
Fuel prices have not increased as dramatically, 5 per cent inflation is a long way from double-digits, and most home borrowers can cope – for now.
Two rate hikes, falling house prices tipped as inflation shock builds
Inflation from the oil shock is about to collide with an Australian economy that can keep growing strongly for the next six months.
Consumer confidence hits historic low ahead of May budget
The worst confidence result in more than 50 years has economists concerned about Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ ability to sell an ambitious tax plan in the budget.
Spending cuts must go hand-in-hand with tax reform to fix budget
Tightening the purse strings is great, but it won’t solve our economic problems. The scale of the challenge means a review of the tax system is critical.
Debelle interviews AOFM officials as review deadline nears
Former central banker Guy Debelle has been interviewing officials and financial market participants over the past few weeks, with more interviews expected this month.
How big business ‘club’ is causing Australia’s economic problem
Oligopolies and a lack of foreign investment are driving up the cost of living, yet governments on both sides of the aisle are turning a blind eye.
NDIS cuts loom amid Treasury productivity push
Labor is looking to halve growth in spending on Australia’s $52 billion disability insurance scheme as it pushes to improve productivity and save money.
Chalmers told to cut record $137b to meet saving target
Economists warn that relying on temporary inflation spikes to offset difficult spending cuts would be a “cop-out” ahead of the May federal budget.
From population bomb to AI boom: why the doomers keep getting it wrong
If we can get more efficient at producing things at a faster rate than we grow, the finite resource constraints aren’t actually a constraint at all.
CGT changes would cut 12k new homes, lift rents: property industry
Industry groups say economic modelling shows proposed changes to the tax would undermine the government’s goal of 1.2 million new homes being built over five years.
3 budget traps Jim Chalmers must avoid (and one move he can’t ignore)
The government should not feel pressured to put together an under-considered package of reforms that would likely be abandoned.
Peter Malinauskas in landslide win in SA election as One Nation soars
The SA premier invoked bush poet Henry Lawson after the biggest victory in Labor history, as One Nation made huge gains and the Liberals sunk to a record low.
Productivity downgrade risks adding up to $100b in debt
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said the slump is expected to continue for the next five years, while economists also forecast wage growth to stall.
Oil shock hits, RBA’s tough love and Boomers lead home loan deals
James and Anthony look at how attacks on infrastructure could prolong an energy crisis and why Michele Bullock couldn’t “wait and see” when it came to rates.
Pauline Hanson’s FIFO on billionaire’s jet lashed by SA premier
Peter Malinauskas has divided his attention between the Liberals and One Nation ahead of the SA election, as the focus turns to whether One Nation can win seats.
